Stock Picks

Our Stock Pick lists are our flagship products. We curate our best ideas into a number of investing strategies depending on your risk tolerance and financial objectives. Scroll down to learn more about our strategies.

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The lists are short and sweet. They summarize the company’s business model, our investment thesis, and the key risks. For more information, please visit the company’s landing page or read our recent research on the stock.

Relative Rankings

Our Relative Rankings list is comprised of the best relative ideas from across our coverage. We evaluate stocks based on their expected performance relative to peers in the same industry. The list is pulled from all of the stocks, bonds, or derivatives in our coverage for that industry.

Stocks in the same industry are usually highly correlated to each other. They are all impacted by the same industry dynamics, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory changes. Most of the time its more important to pick the right industry than the right stock because they all go up or down together.

Relative rankings are how you create true alpha. Relative rankings are how you pick winners and losers in an industry. You identify which stocks will outperform, and which stocks will underperform. Performance is measured relative to industry peers, which means stocks don’t have to go up to outperform. They just have to go down less than their peers, and vice versa for underperformance. If you go long stocks that outperform and short stocks that underperform in equal proportions, even if all your stocks go down the gains on your shorts should offset the losses on your longs. This is how you hedge out market risk and generate alpha.

We categorize every stock as Outperform, Market Perform, or Underperform based on our relative value framework. Our rankings are not linear, either across categories or within categories. That means increases in the Outperform category can be of a greater magnitude than decreases in the Underperform category, and a stock in the Outperform category can go up more than anther stock in the Outperform category. It’s important to read our full investment thesis to understand the qualitative factors behind our recommendations.

How we determine relative rankings for our coverage. Stocks rated Outperform have high upside potential, clear catalysts, and limited downside risk. Stocks rated Underperform have high downside potential, clear catalysts, with limited upside risk. Stocks rated Market Perform have limited return potential, lack clear catalysts, and risk/reward is more balanced.

Most of the time you don’t want to hedge out market risk. Market neutral strategies based on relative rankings are notoriously difficult and have low returns. Most of their returns come from the use of leverage, which amplifies small gains. Leverage is available to hedge funds, but unfortunately not everyday investors. The biggest advantage of market neutral strategies is lower volatility, but as an investor with a longer time horizon you shouldn’t care about volatility. Market beta is a the largest driver of long-term performance, therefore we recommend maintaining full exposure to the market. Relative rankings can still make it easier to conceptualize an industry.

top Longs

Our Top Longs list is comprised of the best buy ideas from across our coverage. To go “long” means to “buy” in Wall Street parlance. The list is pulled from all of the stocks, bonds, and derivatives in our coverage.

Our top long ideas have high upside potential, clear catalysts, and the best risk/reward ratios. That means they have high return potential, typically in a 6-12 month time frame, with limited downside risk.

We recommend portfolio weights based on our conviction in the range of outcomes. Upside scenarios with a higher probability or greater magnitude (or downside scenarios with a lower probability or lesser magnitude) are how we define high conviction.

Top Shorts

Our Top Shorts list is comprised of the best sell ideas from across our coverage. To go “short” means to “sell” in Wall Street parlance. The list is pulled from all of the stocks, bonds, and derivatives in our coverage.

Our top short ideas have high downside potential, clear catalysts, and the best risk/reward ratios. That means they have high return potential, typically in a 6-12 month time frame, with limited upside risk.

We recommend portfolio weights based on our conviction in the range of outcomes. Downside scenarios with a higher probability or greater magnitude (or upside scenarios with a lower probability or lesser magnitude) are how we define high conviction.

150/50 Long/Short

Our Long/Short list is comprised of the best buy and sell ideas from across our coverage. To go “long” means to “buy and to go “short” means to “sell” in Wall Street parlance. The list is pulled from all of the stocks, bonds, and derivatives in our coverage.

A long/short portfolio allows you to employ more leverage to generate higher returns without taking excessive risk. Normally, you will have 100% of your portfolio long stocks. With a long/short portfolio, you can use margin to go long another 50% of your portfolio and short another 50%. Your gross exposure is 200%, but the incremental 50% long and 50% short hedge each other out for net exposure of 100%. The levered part of your portfolio should be protected from market swings (beta), while you capture the difference in stock performance between your longs and shorts (alpha).

Our long/short portfolio is curated from our top longs and top shorts lists. Our top long ideas have high upside potential, clear catalysts, and the best risk/reward ratios. That means they have high return potential, typically in a 6-12 month time frame, with limited downside risk. For our top short ideas, it is the opposite.

We recommend portfolio weights based on our conviction in the range of outcomes. For longs, upside scenarios with a higher probability or greater magnitude (or downside scenarios with a lower probability or lesser magnitude) are how we define high conviction. For shorts, it is the opposite.

stocks to avoid

Our Stocks To Avoid List is comprised of securities with lots of upside/downside potential, but it’s too hard to figure out in which direction they will go. The list is pulled from all of the stocks, bonds, and derivatives in our coverage.

Not losing money is just as important as making money, maybe even more important. When it’s too difficult to determine the direction of travel for a security, it’s best to avoid it altogether. You don’t have to have a view on every security to beat the market, just a few. We prefer to avoid these securities and invest in securities with an easier set up.

The securities on this list may have high upside/downside potential, but the upside/downside scenarios are equally balanced. Although they have high return potential, the outcomes are often binary. The risk/reward ratio is more balanced, and the wide range of outcomes lessens our conviction.

Dividend Stocks & Bonds

Our top Dividend Stocks & Bonds list is comprised of the best income generating ideas from across our coverage. It is designed for investors seeking income from dividends or coupons instead of capital appreciation. The list is pulled from all of the stocks, bonds, and derivatives in our coverage.

Our top income ideas have high yields, stable dividends/coupons, and limited downside risk. Preservation of capital is our primary criteria, but we also want dividends/coupons that are well-protected with the potential for future increases.

We recommend portfolio weights based on our conviction in the range of outcomes. Upside scenarios with a higher probability or greater magnitude (or downside scenarios with a lower probability or lesser magnitude) are how we define high conviction.

thematic investments

Our top Thematic Investments list is comprised of the best thematic ideas from across our coverage. Thematic ideas are tied to long-term secular changes in an industry (good and bad ones). The list is pulled from all of the stocks, bonds, and derivatives in our coverage.

Our top thematic ideas have lots of runway, few obstacles to continued growth, and reasonable valuations. That means they have steady return potential, typically over a multi-year time frame, with limited downside risk.

We recommend portfolio weights based on our conviction in the range of outcomes. Upside scenarios with a higher probability or greater magnitude (or downside scenarios with a lower probability or lesser magnitude) are how we define high conviction.

Direct IndexING

Our Direct Indexing list is comprised of the best passive ideas from across our coverage. Direct indexing is a strategy where you directly own the stocks that comprise an index rather than an ETF or index fund. The list is pulled from all of the stocks in our coverage.

Direct indexing allows you to avoid asset management fees. All index funds charge an asset management fee, usually a few basis points annually. The fee is small, but it compounds over time. When commissions were high on individual stock trades, it made sense to buy an ETF or index fund because it resulted in lower transaction costs. Instead of paying a commission 500 times to buy each individual stock in the S&P 500, you only paid it once to buy an ETF or index fund that held a basket of stocks. Now that commissions on most stock trades are zero, there’s no benefit to buying a single share of an ETF or index fund rather than the underlying stocks. ETFs and index funds don’t really provide any value add these days, so there is no reason to pay an asset management fee for passive exposure if you don’t have to.

Direct indexing is more tax efficient. It’s well known that ETFs are more tax efficient than mutual funds. Mutual fund redemptions are met by selling shares, which are taxable events. ETF redemptions are met by exchanging “in-kind” baskets of securities, which are not taxable events. This minimizes tax consequences for all ETF holders. However, ETFs are not conducive to tax-lass harvesting. Tax-loss harvesting is a process where you sell losers at the end of the year to realize losses that you can use to offset gains on an equal amount of winners. This essentially increases your tax basis in your winners, resulting in lower taxable gains when you sell the stocks. After the wash sale period expires (61 days), you can repurchase the stocks you sold. In the interim, you can purchase proxy stocks that you think will have similar performance (e.g. Coca-Cola instead of Pepsi). Since you own the individual stocks comprising an index with a direct indexing strategy, you can use tax-loss harvesting to minimize your tax obligations.

Direct indexing is achievable without buying every stock in the index. You don’t have to buy 500 stocks to recreate the performance of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is weighted by a company’s market capitalization, which means that the biggest companies drive most of the index’s performance. In fact, the weighting is so lopsided that you only need to buy the top 10 stocks in the index to recreate 90% of the index’s performance. The opportunity cost of missing out on a high performing stock with a much smaller market capitalization is very low. If a stock goes up 100%, but only has a 1% weighting in the index, it would only contribute 1% to the index’s performance. This makes direct indexing easy to implement from a more practical point of view. Most index’s are weighted by market capitalization (e.g. Nasdaq-100), so you can use this approach for any index.

Direct indexing lets you deviate from the index based on your risk tolerance. Since most index’s are weighted by market capitalization, they are not diversified. If you have 100% of your portfolio invested in an index fund or ETF, you are really tied to the performance of a handful of megacap tech stocks. If you want to be more diversified, it’s easy to do by decreasing your allocation to stocks with high market capitalization. At the other extreme, you could own a portfolio that is equally weighted. This strategy may have less downside risk, but it will likely underperform the market when tech stocks do well.

We have 2 direct indexing strategies, depending on what kind of risk you want to take. The first strategy attempts to recreate index returns for the S&P 500 while minimizing the number of stocks held. This strategy will closely match the performance of the S&P 500, but its overweighted to technology stocks and less diversified. Our second strategy places lower weights on technology stocks, and is more diversified. We rely on insights from the rest of our coverage when determining the weights.

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